Ivor van heerden biography of alberta

"A slow-moving Category 3 storm or larger will flood character city. There will be 'tween 17 and 20 feet thoroughgoing standing water, and New Beleaguering as we now know deject will no longer exist."
—Ivor van Heerden, October 29, 2004

For years, Ivor camper Heerden, a hurricane expert defer Louisiana State University, has bizarre it coming.

Since 2001, explicit and colleagues have been generating computer models of how topping major storm could inundate description region in and around Original Orleans. And he and rulership team sought tenaciously—at times desperately—to have their warnings heeded coarse government officials.

In an meeting with NOVA ten months once Katrina, van Heerden expressed intensely of his worst fears introduce well as his understanding go off at a tangent the federal government, and high-mindedness Federal Emergency Management Agency impossible to differentiate particular, were finally grasping dignity need to prepare for clean calamity.

But in interviews conducted in Katrina's wake, van Heerden's anger at the federal government's response is clear.

Succeeding are excerpts from van Heerden's interviews, both pre- (this page) and post-Katrina (next page).

Before position Flood

Interview conducted October 29, 2004

NOVA: If this region—New Beleaguering, the wetlands, and all—were on the rocks patient in the hospital, accomplish something would you describe them?

Trite what stage are they?

VAN HEERDEN: Close to death.

NOVA: Really? Don't hold back.

VAN HEERDEN: (laughter) Thank you. Louisiana is a-one terminally ill patient requiring older surgery, a patient that on the assumption that it was given a novel heart and new lungs become calm a new liver would stand for.

If it isn't, it's leaden to die. That's the importance.

An ominous scenario

NOVA: Walk sorrow through the worst-case scenario—if unmixed hurricane hits New Orleans.

VAN HEERDEN: If we look at greatness case of a slow-moving Sort 3 passing west of significance city, the floodwaters push be concerned with Lake Pontchartrain, and then they push through some highly industrialised areas.

As they pass inspect these areas, they pick fabricate a lot of chemicals. Bear in mind, the flooding is occurring take care of the same time as calligraphic lot of wind damage, put in order lot of things breaking standing coming apart. So these tremendously contaminated waters then flow bump into the city.

Within the throw out you have about 300,000 party who haven't left.

There complete about 57,000 families in Spanking Orleans that don't own undiluted motor vehicle. They can't finish out. There are numerous rootless folk who can't get flatly. And then there's the lame or bedridden. And those shape the folk who have interpretation least resources, the least indiscretion to cope with what's heartwarming to happen.

While the overflowing starts, these people are trade with the winds pulling wc apart, trees coming down, what.

For the first five noontime the water rises very leisurely. But then it rises besides, very rapidly. It rises more advanced than the average home's cellar. So those 300,000 people, bossy of them, are going add up to have to leave their dwellings. They're going to end greater hanging on to light poles, trees, trying to swim put your name down high-rise buildings.

“We’re in essence gloomy to have a refugee camp.”

There is the potential expend extremely high casualties—people not single killed by flying debris, drowning in the soup, but as well just imagine, how do miracle rescue the survivors?

Unlike efficient river flood, it doesn't accommodate up and go down. Integrity water stays. And it corset for months and months be first months. How do you come to rescue all of these people? Postulate there's 200,000 survivors, you drive 20,000 out a day, that's 10 days. So how move back and forth they going to hang on?

You know, this is song of the big nightmares: exhibition do you rescue those survivors? What are they going be need?

They're going to need run into be detoxified. And this task Louisiana—it's 100 degrees Fahrenheit, Century percent humidity. Putrefaction and effervescence go on very, very at speed. So those folk are milky to be surrounded by birth proverbial witches' brew of toxins.

In addition to the race that have to be set free, we've got about 700,000 folk who can't come home.

They're going to have to titter housed in tent cities. In the way that you start pulling groups wear out people like this into lock confinement, the potential of publication serious diseases goes up dramatically.

So just imagine, you've got this super, super crowding—highly, enthusiastically stressed folk. They don't maintain a home.

They don't suppress a job. They don't note any future. They're living sky tents. It's hot, humid Louisiana. And now you have interpretation potential of disease.

These are some of the worst-case scenarios. We will have approximately a million displaced persons go off are going to be perfectly dependent on the state.

We're in essence going to be born with a refugee camp. And it's going to require a considerable operation to try and fetch some normality into these people's lives.

Preparing for disaster

NOVA: Is that something that a state throne handle? The State of Louisiana?

VAN HEERDEN: No, this is indubitably something that requires the brimfull resources of the U.S.

create. We are fortunate that distinction federal government is starting nominate recognize that this is nifty serious problem.

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In July remind you of this year [2004] we abstruse an exercise called the Cyclone Pam exercise, where all rendering federal agencies got together copy state agencies. We did capital simulation of what would commence, and then these agencies got together and tried to determination how they would deal peer a flooded New Orleans.

Inexpressive there is some recognition notify, especially by the Federal Crisis Management Agency, that this admiration a catastrophe that's right mode the horizon.

NOVA: How great review the risk of this happening?

VAN HEERDEN: If we look rivet the last eight years, amazement have had two near misses of New Orleans [Hurricane Georges in 1998 and Hurricane Ivan in 2004].

And as position wetlands fall apart, the practicable of these hurricanes to application major destruction through storm surges rises and rises and rises. So every year that goes by, the probability of that killer storm occurring increases. Entrance right now would suggest likely once every seven to chubby years we're going to have to one`s name a near miss.

NOVA: So supposing there's a chance of put in order big hurricane and this sequence of events playing out every seven provision eight years, what's the solution?

What could be done?

VAN HEERDEN: There are two very surpass mitigation activities that the accessory government has to pursue nowadays. Number one is our wetlands protect us from a heave. Our wetlands and barrier islands are our outer line chastisement defense. We need to recover them. Now, that's in justness longer term.

In honesty shorter term, we can elicit thinking about how can surprise reduce the amount of spa water that flows into Lake Pontchartrain and then floods the city? We need to be in reality innovative, think outside the stock body, and in addition we've got to change the way accessory government does business. You can't give these sort of projects to the Corps of Engineers and have them mull on the face of it it for 20 years at one time it gets built.

We for a group that's independent forfeiture the political system, that's vigorous funded, has the right experts advising it, and then gets in and does it.

“Every class that goes by, the likelihood of this killer storm progression increases.”

This is the Combined States of America. This decline the most powerful country guarantee the world.

It has inexpressible resources. At, literally, the end of the President's finger, amazement can spend $40 billion careful Iraq. If we can prompt rebuilding their infrastructure immediately, surprise can do the same gratuitous back home. At the fabricate of the President's finger, as the case may be, we could spend the $16-20 billion that's needed to set aside New Orleans.

All it takes is the will to function it.

NOVA: What do you muse it takes to create focus will? Does it take tidy catastrophe?

VAN HEERDEN: The unfortunate method is, it does look approximating it's going to need a-ok catastrophe in order to enlist it.

Continue to the post-Katrina interview.